This post started off as a post about the format wars shifting from physical to digital and then it moved into some looks into why things may not be so clear cut as physical and digital. But then talking about it with my wife (explaining that it is hard right now to think “long thoughts” as it is very tiring… kinda like being pregnant from what I hear), she said something that made everything fit together… it isn’t about needs, it is not about greed… it is all about convenience and collecting. Physical media will stay around as long as people want to collect the physical artifacts that are associated with the media. And the dominant form of the media will only change when it is more convenient to adopt a new system than maintain an old one (think film vs digital). Even though today it is as likely to get new music via download as through a CD, people will still buy CDs and rip them (just like dubbing tapes off of records) and even though photos are now almost all digital in origin, a significant portion are still enjoyed as physical prints, even with the rise of photo frames.
So with the talk of Blu-ray dying a slow death at the hands of the upstart downloads or the entrenched DVD, should those people who, like me, are just getting into Blu-ray be worried about getting into a Beta-max in reality? Should we have held out/saved up for a system that can handle downloads? I don’t think so. Regardless of the format the content is delivered on, it is the manner in which it is enjoyed that is going to be the kicker – and this is a format war that the media companies won’t be able to decide a winner on.
But wait… what is that you say – DVD vs BD (Blu-ray Disc)? Well even there you can see that there is going to be a valid market for both formats (and it certainly seems that the studios are game) as Special Edition versions of DVD are still selling well – and these are often at the same price point as the BD and it is likely that the people buying those DVDs are going to be game for upgrading to BD – assuming they can upgrade their systems to handle the new format – and with the arrival of $200 players (even if you need to get an HDMI switch for $30-$60), this certainly seems to be doable.
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